University Students’ Knowledge and Biases in Conditional Probability Reasoning

Carmen Díaz; Carmen Batanero

International Electronic Journal of Mathematics Education

e-ISSN: 1306-3030
First published in 2006

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University Students’ Knowledge and Biases in Conditional Probability Reasoning

Carmen Díaz, Carmen Batanero

Article Type: Research Article
International Electronic Journal of Mathematics Education, 2009 - Volume 4 Issue 3, pp. 131-162
Published Online: 12 Dec 2009
Article Views: 924 | Article Download: 811
Open Access Full Text (PDF)

AMA 10th edition

In-text citation: (1), (2), (3), etc.
Reference: Díaz C, Batanero C. University Students’ Knowledge and Biases in Conditional Probability Reasoning. Int Elect J Math Ed. 2009;4(3), 131-162.

APA 6th edition

In-text citation: (Díaz & Batanero, 2009)
Reference: Díaz, C., & Batanero, C. (2009). University Students’ Knowledge and Biases in Conditional Probability Reasoning. International Electronic Journal of Mathematics Education, 4(3), 131-162.

Chicago

In-text citation: (Díaz and Batanero, 2009)
Reference: Díaz, Carmen, and Carmen Batanero. "University Students’ Knowledge and Biases in Conditional Probability Reasoning". International Electronic Journal of Mathematics Education 2009 4 no. 3 (2009): 131-162.

Harvard

In-text citation: (Díaz and Batanero, 2009)
Reference: Díaz, C., and Batanero, C. (2009). University Students’ Knowledge and Biases in Conditional Probability Reasoning. International Electronic Journal of Mathematics Education, 4(3), pp. 131-162.

MLA

In-text citation: (Díaz and Batanero, 2009)
Reference: Díaz, Carmen et al. "University Students’ Knowledge and Biases in Conditional Probability Reasoning". International Electronic Journal of Mathematics Education, vol. 4, no. 3, 2009, pp. 131-162.

Vancouver

In-text citation: (1), (2), (3), etc.
Reference: Díaz C, Batanero C. University Students’ Knowledge and Biases in Conditional Probability Reasoning. Int Elect J Math Ed. 2009;4(3):131-62.

Abstract

The research question in this study was assessing possible relationships between formal knowledge of conditional probability as well as biases related to conditional probability reasoning: fallacy of the transposed conditional; fallacy of the time axis; base rate fallacy; synchronic and diachronic situations; conjunction fallacy; and confusing independence and mutually exclusiveness. Two samples of university students majoring in psychology and following the same introductory statistics course were given the CPR test before (n = 177) and after (n = 206) formal teaching of conditional probability. Results indicate a systematic improvement in formal understanding of conditional probability and in problem solving capacity but little change in those items related to psychological biases.

Keywords

Conditional probability biases instruction

References

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License

This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.