Abstract
The research question in this study was assessing possible relationships between formal knowledge of conditional probability as well as biases related to conditional probability reasoning: fallacy of the transposed conditional; fallacy of the time axis; base rate fallacy; synchronic and diachronic situations; conjunction fallacy; and confusing independence and mutually exclusiveness. Two samples of university students majoring in psychology and following the same introductory statistics course were given the CPR test before (n = 177) and after (n = 206) formal teaching of conditional probability. Results indicate a systematic improvement in formal understanding of conditional probability and in problem solving capacity but little change in those items related to psychological biases.
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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Article Type: Research Article
INT ELECT J MATH ED, Volume 4, Issue 3, October 2009, 131-162
https://doi.org/10.29333/iejme/234
Publication date: 12 Dec 2009
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