University Students’ Knowledge and Biases in Conditional Probability Reasoning
Carmen Díaz, Carmen Batanero
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Abstract

The research question in this study was assessing possible relationships between formal knowledge of conditional probability as well as biases related to conditional probability reasoning: fallacy of the transposed conditional; fallacy of the time axis; base rate fallacy; synchronic and diachronic situations; conjunction fallacy; and confusing independence and mutually exclusiveness. Two samples of university students majoring in psychology and following the same introductory statistics course were given the CPR test before (n = 177) and after (n = 206) formal teaching of conditional probability. Results indicate a systematic improvement in formal understanding of conditional probability and in problem solving capacity but little change in those items related to psychological biases.

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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Article Type: Research Article

INT ELECT J MATH ED, 2009, Volume 4, Issue 3, 131-162

https://doi.org/10.29333/iejme/234

Publication date: 12 Dec 2009

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