University Students’ Knowledge and Biases in Conditional Probability Reasoning
Carmen Díaz, Carmen Batanero
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The research question in this study was assessing possible relationships between formal knowledge of conditional probability as well as biases related to conditional probability reasoning: fallacy of the transposed conditional; fallacy of the time axis; base rate fallacy; synchronic and diachronic situations; conjunction fallacy; and confusing independence and mutually exclusiveness. Two samples of university students majoring in psychology and following the same introductory statistics course were given the CPR test before (n = 177) and after (n = 206) formal teaching of conditional probability. Results indicate a systematic improvement in formal understanding of conditional probability and in problem solving capacity but little change in those items related to psychological biases.


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Article Type: Research Article

INT ELECT J MATH ED, 2009, Volume 4, Issue 3, 131-162

Publication date: 12 Dec 2009

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