Learning about Japanese verbal probability in elementary school mathematics

Ippo Ishibashi; Masafumi Ikeda; Soichiro Nishi; Takahisa Nishimura

doi:10.29333/iejme/19696

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Ippo Ishibashi ¹ ^* , Masafumi Ikeda ¹ , Soichiro Nishi ² , Takahisa Nishimura ³

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¹ Okayama University, JAPAN² Hiroshima University Junior High School, Mihara, JAPAN³ Hiroshima University High School, Fukuyama, JAPAN^* Corresponding Author

Abstract

This study aimed to identify a lesson design that could help elementary school students become aware of the ambiguity of Japanese verbal expressions of likelihood. A qualitative case study was conducted with 30 fifth-grade students. In a lottery-drawing lesson, students interpreted repeated simulation results, selected verbal expressions, represented the perceived likelihood on a number line, and compared their interpretations with those of their classmates. Video-recorded classroom interactions and worksheets were analyzed using observable indicators aligned with three lesson objectives. Ten students described characteristics of their own interpretations, 19 recognized that the same expression could represent different likelihoods for different people, and 11 referred to the trial frequency–likelihood relationship. Combining repeated simulations, visual representations, and peer comparisons appears to support reflection on verbal probability before the introduction of formal numerical probability. This study extends research on verbal probability to Japanese elementary mathematics and offers a design for early probability instruction.

Keywords

fifth-grade elementary school students
subjective probability
relative frequency
likelihood
Japanese language arts education

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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Article Type: Research Article

INT ELECT J MATH ED, Volume 21, Issue 4, November 2026, Article No: em0901

https://doi.org/10.29333/iejme/19696

Publication date: 29 Oct 2026

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How to cite this article

APA

Ishibashi, I., Ikeda, M., Nishi, S., & Nishimura, T. (2026). Learning about Japanese verbal probability in elementary school mathematics. International Electronic Journal of Mathematics Education, 21(4), em0901. https://doi.org/10.29333/iejme/19696

Vancouver

Ishibashi I, Ikeda M, Nishi S, Nishimura T. Learning about Japanese verbal probability in elementary school mathematics. INT ELECT J MATH ED. 2026;21(4):em0901. https://doi.org/10.29333/iejme/19696

AMA

Ishibashi I, Ikeda M, Nishi S, Nishimura T. Learning about Japanese verbal probability in elementary school mathematics. INT ELECT J MATH ED. 2026;21(4), em0901. https://doi.org/10.29333/iejme/19696

Chicago

Ishibashi, Ippo, Masafumi Ikeda, Soichiro Nishi, and Takahisa Nishimura. "Learning about Japanese verbal probability in elementary school mathematics". International Electronic Journal of Mathematics Education 2026 21 no. 4 (2026): em0901. https://doi.org/10.29333/iejme/19696

Harvard

Ishibashi, I., Ikeda, M., Nishi, S., and Nishimura, T. (2026). Learning about Japanese verbal probability in elementary school mathematics. International Electronic Journal of Mathematics Education, 21(4), em0901. https://doi.org/10.29333/iejme/19696

MLA

Ishibashi, Ippo et al. "Learning about Japanese verbal probability in elementary school mathematics". International Electronic Journal of Mathematics Education, vol. 21, no. 4, 2026, em0901. https://doi.org/10.29333/iejme/19696