Assessing Students’ Difficulties with Conditional Probability and Bayesian Reasoning

Carmen Díaz; Inmaculada de la Fuente

doi:10.29333/iejme/180

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Carmen Díaz, Inmaculada de la Fuente

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Abstract

In this paper we first describe the process of building a questionnaire directed to globally assess formal understanding of conditional probability and the psychological biases related to this concept. We then present results from applying the questionnaire to a sample of 414 students, after they had been taught the topic. Finally, we use Factor Analysis to show that formal knowledge of conditional probability in these students was unrelated to the different biases in conditional probability reasoning. These biases also appeared unrelated in our sample. We conclude with some recommendations about how to improve the teaching of conditional probability.

Keywords

Conditional Probability Reasoning
Assessment

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This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Article Type: Research Article

INT ELECT J MATH ED, Volume 2, Issue 3, October 2007, 128-148

https://doi.org/10.29333/iejme/180

Publication date: 12 Dec 2007

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How to cite this article

APA

Díaz, C., & Fuente, I. D. L. (2007). Assessing Students’ Difficulties with Conditional Probability and Bayesian Reasoning. International Electronic Journal of Mathematics Education, 2(3), 128-148. https://doi.org/10.29333/iejme/180

Vancouver

Díaz C, Fuente IDL. Assessing Students’ Difficulties with Conditional Probability and Bayesian Reasoning. INT ELECT J MATH ED. 2007;2(3):128-48. https://doi.org/10.29333/iejme/180

AMA

Díaz C, Fuente IDL. Assessing Students’ Difficulties with Conditional Probability and Bayesian Reasoning. INT ELECT J MATH ED. 2007;2(3), 128-148. https://doi.org/10.29333/iejme/180

Chicago

Díaz, Carmen, and Inmaculada de la Fuente. "Assessing Students’ Difficulties with Conditional Probability and Bayesian Reasoning". International Electronic Journal of Mathematics Education 2007 2 no. 3 (2007): 128-148. https://doi.org/10.29333/iejme/180

Harvard

Díaz, C., and Fuente, I. D. L. (2007). Assessing Students’ Difficulties with Conditional Probability and Bayesian Reasoning. International Electronic Journal of Mathematics Education, 2(3), pp. 128-148. https://doi.org/10.29333/iejme/180

MLA

Díaz, Carmen et al. "Assessing Students’ Difficulties with Conditional Probability and Bayesian Reasoning". International Electronic Journal of Mathematics Education, vol. 2, no. 3, 2007, pp. 128-148. https://doi.org/10.29333/iejme/180