Assessing Students’ Difficulties with Conditional Probability and Bayesian Reasoning

Carmen Díaz; Inmaculada de la Fuente

International Electronic Journal of Mathematics Education

e-ISSN: 1306-3030
First published in 2006

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Assessing Students’ Difficulties with Conditional Probability and Bayesian Reasoning

Carmen Díaz, Inmaculada de la Fuente

Article Type: Research Article
International Electronic Journal of Mathematics Education, 2007 - Volume 2 Issue 3, pp. 128-148
Published Online: 12 Dec 2007
Article Views: 880 | Article Download: 1467
Open Access Full Text (PDF)

AMA 10th edition

In-text citation: (1), (2), (3), etc.
Reference: Díaz C, Fuente IDL. Assessing Students’ Difficulties with Conditional Probability and Bayesian Reasoning. Int Elect J Math Ed. 2007;2(3), 128-148.

APA 6th edition

In-text citation: (Díaz & Fuente, 2007)
Reference: Díaz, C., & Fuente, I. D. L. (2007). Assessing Students’ Difficulties with Conditional Probability and Bayesian Reasoning. International Electronic Journal of Mathematics Education, 2(3), 128-148.

Chicago

In-text citation: (Díaz and Fuente, 2007)
Reference: Díaz, Carmen, and Inmaculada de la Fuente. "Assessing Students’ Difficulties with Conditional Probability and Bayesian Reasoning". International Electronic Journal of Mathematics Education 2007 2 no. 3 (2007): 128-148.

Harvard

In-text citation: (Díaz and Fuente, 2007)
Reference: Díaz, C., and Fuente, I. D. L. (2007). Assessing Students’ Difficulties with Conditional Probability and Bayesian Reasoning. International Electronic Journal of Mathematics Education, 2(3), pp. 128-148.

MLA

In-text citation: (Díaz and Fuente, 2007)
Reference: Díaz, Carmen et al. "Assessing Students’ Difficulties with Conditional Probability and Bayesian Reasoning". International Electronic Journal of Mathematics Education, vol. 2, no. 3, 2007, pp. 128-148.

Vancouver

In-text citation: (1), (2), (3), etc.
Reference: Díaz C, Fuente IDL. Assessing Students’ Difficulties with Conditional Probability and Bayesian Reasoning. Int Elect J Math Ed. 2007;2(3):128-48.

Abstract

In this paper we first describe the process of building a questionnaire directed to globally assess formal understanding of conditional probability and the psychological biases related to this concept. We then present results from applying the questionnaire to a sample of 414 students, after they had been taught the topic. Finally, we use Factor Analysis to show that formal knowledge of conditional probability in these students was unrelated to the different biases in conditional probability reasoning. These biases also appeared unrelated in our sample. We conclude with some recommendations about how to improve the teaching of conditional probability.

Keywords

Conditional Probability Reasoning Assessment

References

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License

This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.