International Electronic Journal of Mathematics Education

International Electronic Journal of Mathematics Education
Recency Effects in Primary-Age Children and College Students
APA
In-text citation: (Chiesi & Primi, 2009)
Reference: Chiesi, F., & Primi, C. (2009). Recency Effects in Primary-Age Children and College Students. International Electronic Journal of Mathematics Education, 4(3), 259-279. https://doi.org/10.29333/iejme/240
AMA
In-text citation: (1), (2), (3), etc.
Reference: Chiesi F, Primi C. Recency Effects in Primary-Age Children and College Students. INT ELECT J MATH ED. 2009;4(3), 259-279. https://doi.org/10.29333/iejme/240
Chicago
In-text citation: (Chiesi and Primi, 2009)
Reference: Chiesi, Francesca, and Caterina Primi. "Recency Effects in Primary-Age Children and College Students". International Electronic Journal of Mathematics Education 2009 4 no. 3 (2009): 259-279. https://doi.org/10.29333/iejme/240
Harvard
In-text citation: (Chiesi and Primi, 2009)
Reference: Chiesi, F., and Primi, C. (2009). Recency Effects in Primary-Age Children and College Students. International Electronic Journal of Mathematics Education, 4(3), pp. 259-279. https://doi.org/10.29333/iejme/240
MLA
In-text citation: (Chiesi and Primi, 2009)
Reference: Chiesi, Francesca et al. "Recency Effects in Primary-Age Children and College Students". International Electronic Journal of Mathematics Education, vol. 4, no. 3, 2009, pp. 259-279. https://doi.org/10.29333/iejme/240
Vancouver
In-text citation: (1), (2), (3), etc.
Reference: Chiesi F, Primi C. Recency Effects in Primary-Age Children and College Students. INT ELECT J MATH ED. 2009;4(3):259-79. https://doi.org/10.29333/iejme/240

Abstract

We investigate the evolution of probabilistic reasoning with age and some related biases, such as the negative/positive recency effects. Primary school children and college students were presented with probability tasks in which they were asked to estimate the likelihood of the next occurring event after a sequence of independent outcomes. Results indicate that older children perform better than younger children and college students. Concerning biases, the positive recency effect decreases with age whereas no age-related differences are found for the negative recency effect. Theoretical and educational implications of results are discussed.

References

  • Afantiti-Lamprianou, T. & Williams, J. (2003). A Scale for Assessing Probabilistic Thinking and the Representativeness Tendency. Research in Mathematics Education, 5, 172-196.
  • Batanero, C., Godino, J. D., Vallecillos, A., Green D. R., & Holmes, P. (1994). Errors and difficulties in understanding elementary statistical concepts. International Journal of Mathematics Education in Science and Technology, 25, 527–547. Retrieved from http://www.ugr.es/~batanero/ARTICULOS/errors.PDF, July 10, 2009.
  • Batanero, C., Serrano. L., & Garfield, J. B. (1996). Heuristics and biases in secondary school students’ reasoning about probability. In L. Puig & A. Gutiérrez (Eds.), Proceedings of the 20th Conference on the International Group for the Psychology of Mathematics Education (pp. 51–59). Valencia: University of Valencia.
  • Borovcnik, M. & Bentz, H.-J. (1991). Empirical research in understanding probability. In. R. Kapadia & M. Borovcnik (Eds.), Chance Encounters: Probability in Education (pp. 73–106). Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers.
  • Brengio, E. (n. d.). Progetto Rhoda 'numeri con qualità'. Retrieved from http://www.rhoda.it/programm.htm; May 25, 2009.
  • Cañizares, M. J. & Batanero, C. (1998). A study on the stability of equiprobability bias in 10-14 year-old children. In L. Pereira-Mendoza (Ed.), Statistical education – Expanding the network. Proceedings of the Fifth International Conference on Teaching Statistics (pp. 1447–1448). Voorburg: International Statistical Institute. Retrieved from http://www.stat.auckland.ac.nz/~iase/publications/2/Topic10a.pdf, July 10, 2009.
  • Chiesi, F., Gronchi, G. & Primi, C. (2008). Age-Trend related Differences in Task Involving Conjunctive Probabilistic Reasoning. Canadian Journal of Experimental Psychology, 62, 188–191.
  • Chiesi, F., Primi, C. & Gronchi, G. (2007). Age trends in misconceptions related to representativeness heuristic. Presented at the Society for Research in Child Development, SRCD, Biennial Meeting, Boston.
  • Davidson, D. (1995). The representativeness heuristics and the conjunction fallacy in children decision making. Merrill Palmer Quarterly, 41, 328–346.
  • Evans, J. St. B. T. & Over, D. E. (1996). Rationality and reasoning. Hove: Psychology Press.
  • Fischbein, E. (1975). The intuitive sources of probabilistic thinking in children. Dordrecht: Reidel.
  • Fischbein, E. & Gazit, A. (1984). Does the teaching of probability improve probabilistic intuitions? Educational Studies in Mathematics, 15, 1–24.
  • Fischbein, E. & Schnarch, D. (1997). The evolution with age of probabilistic, intuitively based misconceptions. Journal for Research in Mathematics Education, 28, 96–105
  • Fischbein, E., Nello, M. S., & Marino, M. S. (1991). Factors affecting probabilistic judgments in children and adolescents. Educational Studies in Mathematics, 22, 523–549.
  • Flaccavento Romano, G., Gervasoni, V., Tinelli, N., & Köhler, R. (2005). Amico sole – Matematica – Scienze – Storia – Geografia – Tecnologia. Milano: RCS Libri.
  • Gigerenzer, G. & Todd, P. M. (1999). Fast and frugal heuristics: The adaptive toolbox. In G. Gigerenzer, et al (Eds), Simple heuristics that make us smart (pp. 3–34). New York: Oxford College Press.
  • Green D. R. (1982). Probability concepts in 11-16 year old pupils (2nd ed). Loughborough: Centre for Advancement of Mathematical Education in Technology, College of Technology.
  • Jacobs, J. E. & Potenza, M. (1991). The use of judgment heuristics to make social and object decision: A developmental perspective. Child Development, 62, 166–178.
  • Kapadia, R. & Borovcnik, M. (1991). Chance Encounters: Probability in Education. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers.
  • Kahneman, D. & Tversky, A. (1972). Subjective Probability: A Judgment of Representativeness. Cognitive Psychology, 3, 430–453.
  • Kahneman, D., Slovic, P. & Tversky, A. (1982). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Cambridge: Cambridge College Press.
  • Klaczynski, P. A. (2001). Analytic and Heuristic Processing Influences on Adolescent Reasoning and Decision-Making. Child Development, 72, 844–861.
  • Konold, C. (1995). Issues in Assessing Conceptual Understanding in Probability and Statistics. Journal of Statistics Education, 3(1). Retrieved from http://www.amstat.org/publications/jse/v3n1/konold.html, May 25, 2009.
  • Konold, C., Lohmeier, J., Pollatsek, A., Well, A. D., Falk, R., & Lipson, A. (1991). Novice Views on Randomness. In R. G. Underhill (Ed.), Proc. 13° Annual Meeting of the Intern. Group for the Psychology of Mathematics Education (pp. 167–173). Blacksburg, VA: Polytechnic Institute and State College.
  • Lecoutre, M. P. (1992). Cognitive models and problem spaces in “purely random” situations. Educational Studies in Mathematics, 23, 557–568.
  • McNeil, N. M. (2007). U-shaped development in math: 7-year-olds outperform 9-year-olds on equivalence problems. Developmental Psychology, 43, 687–695.
  • Moratti, L. (2004). Decreto Legislativo 59/04 applicativo della Riforma Moratti, Supplemento Ordinario, n. 31, Gazzetta Ufficiale, n. 51 (2.03.2004).
  • Morsanyi, K. & Handley, S. J. (2007). Understanding the ups and the downs of reasoning in the course of development. Presented at the British Psychology Society, BPS, Developmental Section Conference, Plymouth.
  • Piaget, J. & Inhelder, B. (1975). The origin of the idea of chance in children. London: Routledge & Kegan Paul.
  • Shaughnessy, J. M. (1992). Research in probability and statistics. In D. A. Grouws (Ed.), Handbook of Research on mathematics teaching and learning (pp. 465–494). New York: MacMillan.
  • Tversky, A. & Kahneman, D. (1974). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Science, 185, 1124–1131.
  • Williams, J. S. & Amir, G. S. (1995). 11–12 year old children’s informal knowledge and its influence on their formal probabilistic reasoning. Annual Meeting of the American Educational Research Association, San Francisco.

License

This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.